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Rasmussen: Cain 43, Obama 41

megaprogman said:
Its rasmussen, so we can probably calibrate it to reflect reality by swapping 5 or 6% from Cain to Obama.
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I wouldn't be so fast there. I know its in style right now to write off Rassmussen as "conservative biased" right off, but people seem to do that simply due to ignorance beyond what they've read on message boards over the past few years than giving a thurough look at it.

From stats I believe RightinNY provided a while back, "likely voters" skews more conservative than "registered voters" does. As such, that skews Rasmussen polls slightly.

However, it doesn't necessarily indicate inaccuracy. Rasmussen did far better in 2004 than he did in 2008. Why? In 2004 there was far less enthusiasm and excitement about the Democratic candidate than there was in 2008. Due to that, less unlikely voters showed up to the ballet box to vote for John Kerry than to vote for Barack Obama.

I'm not saying this poll is absolutely concrete, but I'd be hesistant to suggest giving it a 10 point swing like you either seriously or sarcastically suggested above. Enthusiasm in Obama has dropped significantly from 2008, and his disapprovals are marketedly higher. If this was 2008 I'd agree with you but in the current climate I tihnk that the amount those numbers are off from reality is a fair bit smaller than what you're suggesting.

Additionally, there's still other information to gather from this poll. For example, a week ago Cain was trailing Obama by 3 and now is up by 2. A 5 point swing regardless of how you look at it. That at the very least is an upward movement on Cain's part and perhaps the beginning of a trend. Does it necessarily mean he's going to beat Obama? No, but its definitely potentially useful information and a picture.

Too often liberals immedietely write off Rasmussen as "conservative" biased while showing their own bias in doing so due to an inability or lack of desire to actually honestly and objectively examine the poll. Rasmussen still gives good and useful information, but needs to be reviewed in the scope of its polling practices and not directly compared to other polls with significantly different sampling.
 
apdst said:
Why do you say that? What could possibly happen between now and November 2012 that would boost Obama's numbers?
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Well, a Republican candidate might open his mouth and say something utterly stupid..... (my guess is this happens over 100 times between now and 11/12)
 
upsideguy said:
Well, a Republican candidate might open his mouth and say something utterly stupid..... (my guess is this happens over 100 times between now and 11/12)
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It would have to something far more stupid than what Obama says, which is highly unlikely.
 
apdst said:
Don't feel sorry for me. I'm not the one supporting the first American dictator.
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That's funny apdst, wasn't it President Bush who said he was the decider??

Oh, yes it was::lamo

 
I don't think much of any of the polling, however, it's clear that the polling drives public opinion to a degree. If people now have reason to believe Cain has a chance agianst Obama, they may be more inclined to gravitate to him, give him money and volunteer. There are a lot of things I like about Cain and he may well be able to hold this lead through January, but it is way early to know. The first round of primaries will determine who is going to get the real money and keep going. Obviously Romney already has real money. Conservatives are going to reserve a bit until they see who is his main challenger.
 
pbrauer said:
That's funny apdst, wasn't it President Bush who said he was the decider??

Oh, yes it was::lamo

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When did Rick Perry become presidest!?
 
YOUR NEW TAX CODE:

apples-and-oranges-in-crates.jpg


IT'S APPLES AND ORANGES, BABY. DON'T MIX THEM UP.
 
cpwill said:
That's still a huge toss-up.




meanwhile....


the numbers are reversed with Romney, with Obama winning 43-41
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ksu_aviator said:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

Cain is actually up in the RCP average.
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We all know that Obama loses to the generic Republican candidate. The problem for Republicans, however, is they can not run a generic candidate, and once the clown factor of the existing group is identified and measured, they quickly become also-rans in the polls to Obama. Cain has been generic, but now his clown factor is being measured. This poll means nothing until the clown factor is fully assessed.
 
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apdst said:
It will give him an excuse to declare emergency powers.
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Talk about unhinged. :roll: When in America's history have protests in the streets led to a canceling of a national election? We even held an election during the civil war as the nation was being torn in half.
 
disneydude said:
I encourage you to get everyone you know to support Cain. Go out and campaign for him. Let's help Cain get the GOP nod over Romney!
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I am seriously considering it. I may volunteer to help organize the effort for Cain in the city I live in here in northern Alabama.
 
Misterveritis said:
I am seriously considering it. I may volunteer to help organize the effort for Cain in the city I live in here in northern Alabama.
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Just don't bring any of your female friends. I hear he's a little grabby. :lol:
 
AdamT said:
Just don't bring any of your female friends. I hear he's a little grabby. :lol:
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...... allegedly a little grabby ;):mrgreen:
 
upsideguy said:
We all know that Obama loses to the generic Republican candidate. The problem for Republicans, however, is they can not run a generic candidate, and once the clown factor of the existing group is identified and measured, they quickly become also-rans in the polls to Obama. Cain has been generic, but now his clown factor is being measured. This poll means nothing until the clown factor is fully assessed.
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Romney is the only viable candidate the republicans have. Presently Obama leads him by about 2 points. Obama leads Cain by about 8 points and Perry by 11. I don't see Cain or Perry improving from this point.

RealClearPolitics - President Obama vs. Republican Candidates
 
This poll will hopefully convince all that the GOP must nominate Cain in 2012 to be their standard bearer. No ifs, and or buts about it.
 
Reg said:
Obama is landslidable. Why settle for Romney?
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No. He's not. In your fantasies, yes. Even in states like Florida and North Carolina where his popularity has dropped by a great deal, he polls even with or ahead of everyone except Romney.

He has a HUGE lead in Pennsylvania and most of the coastal states are clearly going to stay in his favor.

There is no way, despite lower approval ratings, that will lose in a landslide.

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

He may lose, but it's becoming less and less likely with each passing day and with each screw-up by a Republican candidate aside from Romney.

You also forget, that not having to deal with the primary, Obama (expecting Romney to be the eventual nominee) has MONTHS to build up the negative rhetoric against Romney. Further, Romney is forced to play to the right during the primary and will have to swivel back to pick up independents in the general. With him already being labeled a flip-flopper, this necessary political move isn't going to look good on him.
 
AdamT said:
Just don't bring any of your female friends. I hear he's a little grabby. :lol:
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All you have heard so far are allegations. There are no facts, so far, that I am aware of. Do you have any?
Do you believe a non-sexual gesture means he grabbed someone?
 
This is interesting. The most recent(from yesterday) poll for the republican nomination(it's Rasmussen) when compared to the last poll from the same organization:

Cain: now 26, last one 29
Romney: now 23.8, last one 29

Who got the bump from those two sliding? Undecided. Undecided was at 13 % this poll, beating every other candidate. Don't really know what that all means, but I do find it interesting.
 
Redress said:
This is interesting. The most recent(from yesterday) poll for the republican nomination(it's Rasmussen) when compared to the last poll from the same organization:

Cain: now 26, last one 29
Romney: now 23.8, last one 29

Who got the bump from those two sliding? Undecided. Undecided was at 13 % this poll, beating every other candidate. Don't really know what that all means, but I do find it interesting.
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It means that all of the GOP candidates blow.
 
The only poll that matters is still a year away.
 
Misterveritis said:
All you have heard so far are allegations. There are no facts, so far, that I am aware of. Do you have any?
Do you believe a non-sexual gesture means he grabbed someone?
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Here's a fact ... Cain first said he wasn't aware of any settlements ... then he said there were settlements equal to 3 months of salary ... then he said there were settlements from somewhere between 3 months and 6 months of salary ... then he said there were settlements equal to 1 years worth of salary.

Poor guy ... he's not even president yet and already he's been exposed as a liar. :lol:
 
Misterveritis said:
All you have heard so far are allegations. There are no facts, so far, that I am aware of. Do you have any?
Do you believe a non-sexual gesture means he grabbed someone?
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The point is that he knew or should have known those allegations would have come to light and he should have handled the situation better.
 
Redress said:
This is interesting. The most recent(from yesterday) poll for the republican nomination(it's Rasmussen) when compared to the last poll from the same organization:

Cain: now 26, last one 29
Romney: now 23.8, last one 29

Who got the bump from those two sliding? Undecided. Undecided was at 13 % this poll, beating every other candidate. Don't really know what that all means, but I do find it interesting.
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Obama .
 
pbrauer said:
The point is that he knew or should have known those allegations would have come to light and he should have handled the situation better.
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Exactly the problem with Cain. He was caught totally offguard with his own past and has shown himself to be ill prepared for the big time.
 
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