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Outcome of the Republican nomination

Who will win the Republican nomination?

  • Mitt Romney

    Votes: 16 72.7%

  • Herman Cain

    Votes: 4 18.2%

  • Rick Perry

    Votes: 1 4.5%

  • Ron Paul

    Votes: 1 4.5%

  • Rick Santorum

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Michele Bachmann

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Someone else

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
Phys251

Phys251

Purge evil with Justice
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Who will prevail as the Republican nominee?
 
As it stands right now, in order of likelihood: Romney ~> Cain ~> Perry

No one else stands a realistic chance, not enough money or support.
 
Redress said:
As it stands right now, in order of likelihood: Romney ~> Cain ~> Perry

No one else stands a realistic chance, not enough money or support.
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That sounds right.
 
i came from the future. Romney still has the lead even after video was shown of him signing over the presidency of the u.s to goldman sachs.

But in a last ditch effort, bachmann shows off her taa taas in a debate and wins the primary. She got boobie implants....
 
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Phys251 said:
Who will prevail as the Republican nominee?
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Herman Cain's tax plan will be exposed as hurting business and poor people, so Romney should win. I'd give him about a 90% chance right now. And the right wing of the republican party will swallow their pride and vote for him even though he's not that conservative, because they hate Obama so much.
 
Too early to tell. If it was decided today, it would be Romney, but a whole lot can happen between now and August. Cain may manage to pull ahead of Romney. Given the instability in the GOP this cycle, I don't believe it would be impossible for another candidate to emerge from the shadows
 
Frolicking Dinosaurs said:
Too early to tell. If it was decided today, it would be Romney, but a whole lot can happen between now and August. Cain may manage to pull ahead of Romney. Given the instability in the GOP this cycle, I don't believe it would be impossible for another candidate to emerge from the shadows
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You forget that the republican primaries and caucuses have been pushed forward as of now, so in fact it would be virtually impossible for another candidate to emerge. And, there are filing deadlines ahead of all of the primaries. I'm not sure exactly what they are/how the deadlines all fit together, but I do know it would be a HUGE obstacle to overcome. So the field is probably set. The best chance for some one besides Romney, Perry or Cain is a come-back form some candidate that is behind. There are actually hundreds of candidates that are behind in the polls, but I doubt any of them is very likely to step into the lead at this point.

Proposed primary/caucus dates:
Frontloading HQ: The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (Republican and Democratic)
 
My two cents is still on Perry, Romney, Cain for the primary win. I think Romney has great enough hurdles within the hard right conservatives of his party that he won't be able to pull it off. As people get to know Cain's proposals better, they will realize they will only worsen our situation, which will leave Perry once again at the top of the heap.
 
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Mitt Romney. Herman Cain's a joke and his tax plan is ridiculous and will be exposed. It makes me sad that a great statesman like Jon Huntsman has no shot, but he needs New Hampshire and unfortunately for him Mitt Romney will win that. The only person who could push him is Rick Perry, he's got the money and that will take you far.
 
Boo Radley said:
That sounds right.
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I'm not sure if Cain will sustain his performance in the polls, so I'd probably reverse Cain and Perry's position. Who knows what'll happen though if Cain continues to have strong debate performances while Perry continues to have horrible ones.
 
neocon1225 said:
Mitt Romney. Herman Cain's a joke and his tax plan is ridiculous and will be exposed. It makes me sad that a great statesman like Jon Huntsman has no shot, but he needs New Hampshire and unfortunately for him Mitt Romney will win that. The only person who could push him is Rick Perry, he's got the money and that will take you far.
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100% agree.
 
StillBallin75 said:
I'm not sure if Cain will sustain his performance in the polls, so I'd probably reverse Cain and Perry's position. Who knows what'll happen though if Cain continues to have strong debate performances while Perry continues to have horrible ones.
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I'm sorry I don't understand why people keep thinking Herman Cain has "strong" debate performances? He never really says much of anything, he just regurgitates "999" all the time or he says "don't know, get back to you later." When questioned about holes in his "plan" he just says "you're wrong, I'm right" and leaves it at that. He comes off as arrogant, and I really think he's an empty suit. The fact that he has no discernible policies outside of 999, no money, stopped campaigning to go on a book tour, and has no organization set up in Iowa or New Hampshire signals to me he's campaigning for a FoxNews contract rather than President of the United States. Herman Cain's inexplicable rise in the polls is by far the most annoying and sickening turn of events in this election cycle. I can't believe so many people are fooled by this joke of a candidate. Mitt Romney's 100x the candidate Cain could ever be, and Mitt's not even the best option in the field!
 
neocon1225 said:
I'm sorry I don't understand why people keep thinking Herman Cain has "strong" debate performances? He never really says much of anything, he just regurgitates "999" all the time or he says "don't know, get back to you later." When questioned about holes in his "plan" he just says "you're wrong, I'm right" and leaves it at that. He comes off as arrogant, and I really think he's an empty suit. The fact that he has no discernible policies outside of 999, no money, stopped campaigning to go on a book tour, and has no organization set up in Iowa or New Hampshire signals to me he's campaigning for a FoxNews contract rather than President of the United States. Herman Cain's inexplicable rise in the polls is by far the most annoying and sickening turn of events in this election cycle. I can't believe so many people are fooled by this joke of a candidate. Mitt Romney's 100x the candidate Cain could ever be, and Mitt's not even the best option in the field!
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when people say "strong debate performances" generally they are referring to rhetoric over substance. Basically, a strong debate performance is one that garners applause from the audience, consists of simple rhetorical messaging, and makes the other debaters look like fools. It has little to do with actual substance.

Obviously a strong debate performance in a GOP debate is very different from a strong debate performance on DP.
 
StillBallin75 said:
when people say "strong debate performances" generally they are referring to rhetoric over substance. Basically, a strong debate performance is one that garners applause from the audience, consists of simple rhetorical messaging, and makes the other debaters look like fools. It has little to do with actual substance.

Obviously a strong debate performance in a GOP debate is very different from a strong debate performance on DP.
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I guess, it's just frustrating. As a nation we really don't have time for soundbites. We need solutions and results.
 
neocon1225 said:
I guess, it's just frustrating. As a nation we really don't have time for soundbites. We need solutions and results.
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Agreed. When it comes to televised debates, however, it's all about soundbites. The 999 plan is attractive to some because of its simplicity. You don't see as attention being given to Huntsman's plan or Romney's 59-point plan.
 
neocon1225 said:
I guess, it's just frustrating. As a nation we really don't have time for soundbites. We need solutions and results.
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True. Unfortunately in this country, emotion usually trumps logic.
 
StillBallin75 said:
Agreed. When it comes to televised debates, however, it's all about soundbites. The 999 plan is attractive to some because of its simplicity. You don't see as attention being given to Huntsman's plan or Romney's 59-point plan.
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When Herman Cain actually mocked Romney for having a detailed complex plan I looked at my wife and told it was a sad commentary on the state of our nation. I mean I couldn't believe it. Like Romney said, sometimes simple things are helpful, but oftentimes they are not enough. And the WSJ endorsed Huntsman's plan. Both Romney and Huntsman's plans are realistic and would probably work. 999 is a gimmick that sometimes I feel like Cain doesn't even believe in.
 
Not only do I believe Romney will win, I believe that if he makes a deal with Herman Cain to be the VP the two of them would clear Obama's clock with ease.

The only thing that might keep Obama afloat would if he dumped Biden and replaced him with Hillary.

There is also still a chance that Hillary may go head to head with Obama for the nomination. She could also be nominated at the convention and be drafted. She's an unknown factor so far, but she did say she would leave after this term is over so the door is open for her to step in.
 
Councilman said:
Not only do I believe Romney will win, I believe that if he makes a deal with Herman Cain to be the VP the two of them would clear Obama's clock with ease.

The only thing that might keep Obama afloat would if he dumped Biden and replaced him with Hillary.

There is also still a chance that Hillary may go head to head with Obama for the nomination. She could also be nominated at the convention and be drafted. She's an unknown factor so far, but she did say she would leave after this term is over so the door is open for her to step in.
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I agree, Romney/Cain would be a very strong ticket. Romney would be attractive to many centrists, and Cain could go fund raise with conservatives who don't like Romney so much. It would be virtually impossible for Obama to win against them, barring some kind of miraculous turn-around in the economy. Then it would be anyone's game.
 
neocon1225 said:
When Herman Cain actually mocked Romney for having a detailed complex plan I looked at my wife and told it was a sad commentary on the state of our nation. I mean I couldn't believe it. Like Romney said, sometimes simple things are helpful, but oftentimes they are not enough. And the WSJ endorsed Huntsman's plan. Both Romney and Huntsman's plans are realistic and would probably work. 999 is a gimmick that sometimes I feel like Cain doesn't even believe in.
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Cain is attempting to appeal to a segment of the population and doing it well. I certainly don't agree with anything Cain does, but he does get his message across, which is why he gets credit for strong debate performances. Perry has not done well since he handled pressure poorly and did not get his points across when pressed. To use an extreme example, Paul does terrible in debates even though he gets points across...it's just no one outside that 10 % of republicans cares about his points.
 
Redress said:
Cain is attempting to appeal to a segment of the population and doing it well. I certainly don't agree with anything Cain does, but he does get his message across, which is why he gets credit for strong debate performances. Perry has not done well since he handled pressure poorly and did not get his points across when pressed. To use an extreme example, Paul does terrible in debates even though he gets points across...it's just no one outside that 10 % of republicans cares about his points.
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I've never been a fan of soundbite politics and to me Herman Cain is the embodiment of soundbite politics. I remember watching the first GOP debates months ago and I really thought Cain was a joke, my wife and I couldn't stand him. And then to tune into post-debate coverage and see focus groups saying that he "won" the debate, I was flabbergasted. I mean before he had 999 (which isn't much of anything as it is) he literally would go through an entire debate without actually saying anything. Sure he would talk a lot, very loudly and arrogantly, but all he was doing was spewing empty platitudes. I just don't understand the Cain appeal, 999 is a joke and outside of that he's shown himself to out his depth and in over his head.

To steal a thought from Hillary Clinton in 2008 I often think about the "3 AM phone call" and I picture each candidate having to take it. I really get nervous at the thought of someone like Herman Cain having to respond to that call, I really think he'd get a deer in the headlight look. Contrast that with someone like Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, or hell even Newt Gingrich, all of whom I'd feel entirely comfortable knowing they were at the helm.
 
neocon1225 said:
I've never been a fan of soundbite politics and to me Herman Cain is the embodiment of soundbite politics. I remember watching the first GOP debates months ago and I really thought Cain was a joke, my wife and I couldn't stand him. And then to tune into post-debate coverage and see focus groups saying that he "won" the debate, I was flabbergasted. I mean before he had 999 (which isn't much of anything as it is) he literally would go through an entire debate without actually saying anything. Sure he would talk a lot, very loudly and arrogantly, but all he was doing was spewing empty platitudes. I just don't understand the Cain appeal, 999 is a joke and outside of that he's shown himself to out his depth and in over his head.

To steal a thought from Hillary Clinton in 2008 I often think about the "3 AM phone call" and I picture each candidate having to take it. I really get nervous at the thought of someone like Herman Cain having to respond to that call, I really think he'd get a deer in the headlight look. Contrast that with someone like Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, or hell even Newt Gingrich, all of whom I'd feel entirely comfortable knowing they were at the helm.
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I understand what you re saying, and I agree. However, sound bites are effective ways to get out your message to most people, even if not for you or me. I got pissy last election at what I found as the candidates being too vague on their issue stances on their websites, so trust me when I say soundbites are not enough for me.
 
Redress said:
I understand what you re saying, and I agree. However, sound bites are effective ways to get out your message to most people, even if not for you or me. I got pissy last election at what I found as the candidates being too vague on their issue stances on their websites, so trust me when I say soundbites are not enough for me.
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I understand it's the world we live in, but I keep waiting for the majority of Americans to grow up past the stage of "oh look shiny things" politics. However it appears as though most people will just read Fox News or HuffPo or whatever and do no more than cursory investigation of issues and candidates.
 
They would usually nominate the most moderate out of the candidates in the past. If that holds true this time around, it will be either Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman. Huntsman is a good guy but he's under rated in his party so I don't think he has a big chance, at least from what I see.
 
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