Republican Field Set, Now Some Questions For Discussion

With Palin and Christie both saying no to running, it looks like the republican field for 2012 is pretty much set. This brings to my mind a number of questions. What do you all think about these:

1) Romney is the frontrunner and has been all along except for a spike by Perry. Can he hold on to frontrunner status? Can he make conservatives excited enough to come out in force in Nov 2012?

2) Perry came in with huge numbers, and fell of fast. What can he do to recover and give himself a shot at the nomination?

3) Bachmann, is she a serious candidate? How does she overcome that she is part of a congress with a 10 % approval rate?

4) Cain is surging. What does he need to do to continue to surge? How can he combat the charge he has no government experience?

5) Is there anything Paul can do to appeal to mainstream voters?

6) Can any one else make an impact?

7) How do the candidates appeal to the Tea Party for the primaries, without being saddled with the Tea Party candidate tag which would hurt in the general?

8) Any front runners for VP?

Redress said:

With Palin and Christie both saying no to running, it looks like the republican field for 2012 is pretty much set. This brings to my mind a number of questions. What do you all think about these:

1) Romney is the frontrunner and has been all along except for a spike by Perry. Can he hold on to frontrunner status? Can he make conservatives excited enough to come out in force in Nov 2012?

2) Perry came in with huge numbers, and fell of fast. What can he do to recover and give himself a shot at the nomination?

3) Bachmann, is she a serious candidate? How does she overcome that she is part of a congress with a 10 % approval rate?

4) Cain is surging. What does he need to do to continue to surge? How can he combat the charge he has no government experience?

5) Is there anything Paul can do to appeal to mainstream voters?

6) Can any one else make an impact?

7) How do the candidates appeal to the Tea Party for the primaries, without being saddled with the Tea Party candidate tag which would hurt in the general?

8) Any front runners for VP?

Click to expand...

1) Depends but most likely. I think the establishment gop made there pick and just want to win. The only principle that group has is to do whatever it takes to get power. He will fall short like John Kerry because he'll be labeled as a major flip flopper (even more than Obama).

2) Nothing. He shot himself in the foot and half of his supporters left to the Cain camp.

3) Bachmann is a goner. She bought 7000-9000 tickets/private entertainment or whatever to win the Iowa straw poll . The real winner was Paul who his supporters paid to go there. She will probably be the first to drop out.

4) Cain is a risky ticket. If msm ever puts his past mistakes on the forefront, he is a goner. You can't be brought into the race solely for you economic background yet get every economic disaster this decade wrong! When you tell Cain supporters the truth, they're either shock or dismissive. I feel sad for people who are dismissive of it since they're tricking themselves to believe he can be a good candidate. Why? Because they can't switch to anybody else. He is the lesser of the evils in the bunch but you're still choosing evil.

5) That is a mystery question. Paul base is solid as a rock which means his support continuously grows. It's just at a very slow pace because it requires an average American to think outside the box and not be total retard warmongering chicken hawk. Unless you have the time to listen to him speak and understand his ideas, you won't get him. That is why his campaign, while solid, grows slowly. Most Americans don't have the time to do that and tend to do the "american idol" pick.

6) Nope. I suspect Perry & Cain will share the barrel of supporters unless each candidate goes after Rommey hard like they did with Perry.

7) No need. Currently Rommey will win and the tea party will be force to vote for him since they hate Obama. Though I predict an abnormal amount of votes for a third party candidate since people will be sicken by the two choices.

8) Newt, or Gary. I would vomit if Santorum was named for VP and the win would automatically go to Obama.

In my mind its a 3 way race now....in order of my thought on who has the best shot in order

1. Romney
2. Perry
3.Cain

What shocked me was reading that perry even after the terrible debate performance and the huge drop in polls...raised MEGA BUCKS I was surprised the big money was in the millions and that says big donors havent abandoned him yet.

VP...Rubio is out at this point...Rubio shuts door on VP nod ....Rubio shuts door on VP nod - - POLITICO.com

I think if Romney wins he choose a hard righter to pacify the teaparty.....If cain wins he picks the most popular white guy for contrast...

The main thing to keep in mind...is that Im most always fricken wrong

Too many questions in the OP, but what I think will make conservatives turn out in droves to vote is the prospect of another four Obama years.

nota bene said:

Too many questions in the OP, but what I think will make conservatives turn out in droves to vote is the prospect of another four Obama years.

Click to expand...

I agree and I think whats going to bring out the vote for Obama is the Teaparty Rhetoric and their attacks on everything working class...if you look the protests are growing...and they aint conservatives

There's still a remote chance that someone else jumps in - Rudy Giuliani, for example, was said to be interested in running and has yet to announce that he won't. I kinda hope he does, he's at least better than the others running right now. But if not...

1. If the current field is set, I'd give Romney better than even odds of being the nominee. As long as he remains gaffe-free he could probably beat Obama, but he'd have to keep constantly reminding conservatives that if they don't get out and vote for him, Obamacare will go into effect without repeal.

2. Perry's finished. He has all the inauthenticity of Romney without the brains.

3. The fact that Bachmann was ever leading in any poll only shows how desperate the Republican Party has been. She's through too.

4. I have no idea what's going to happen with Cain. Someone like him getting nominated is pretty much unprecedented, as far as I'm aware. In the end, it'll all boil down to "is he better than Mitt Romney?" I'm not sure of the answer myself, and even less sure of how the party will answer. Right now though, I feel like he's probably just one more in a long line of Flavors of the Week.

5. I don't think Paul really wants to appeal to mainstream voters. He's mostly running to get out his message; he's smart enough to know he has no chance of winning.

That's all I feel like answering for the moment.

1 - Conservatives will come out in droves to vote for the nominee not named Obama.

2 - Perry is pretty much done IMO. He's not "Presidential" enough and the media will have a harder time making up dirt on Romney than they will Perry. I see Romney winning the nomination fairly easily at this point.

3 - She is a serious candidate, but she's too much "Tea Party" and not enough "Republican establishment".

4 - Cain is a viable alternative to Romney in terms of financial experience, but very weak on foreign policy. He will be nailed on this now that he's in the top 3. I think he shot himself in the foot this past weekend jumping on a BS story about Perry. He will lose some support over this.

5 - Ron Paul is exactly what this country needs in terms of fiscal discipline, but he is unelectable by the masses (not enough independents will vote for him) and not very "Presidential" IMO.

6 - The only one who could alter the outcome of Romney winning at this point IMO would be Daniels and he stepped out of the running before he got in.

7 - I don't think any "Tea Party tag" is going to seriously hurt anyone. The outright lies and smears by the left against the Tea Party have come up empty on every level. Since the Tea Party is a movement and has no organized hierarchy, there won't be any announced endorsement. The Tea Party support is split right now and I don't see that changing any time soon. If anyone had the support of the Tea Party at this point, it would be either Bachmann or Paul.

8 - Way too early to tell, way too early. I'm not convinced one way or the other that the VP candidate is currently running for the nomination for President. But if I was forced to go with one person, it would be Rubio. This would wrap up the Tea Party vote in a big way and bring together both Tea Party voters as well as establishment voters.

lpast said:

In my mind its a 3 way race now....in order of my thought on who has the best shot in order

1. Romney
2. Perry
3.Cain

What shocked me was reading that perry even after the terrible debate performance and the huge drop in polls...raised MEGA BUCKS I was surprised the big money was in the millions and that says big donors havent abandoned him yet.

VP...Rubio is out at this point...Rubio shuts door on VP nod ....Rubio shuts door on VP nod - - POLITICO.com

I think if Romney wins he choose a hard righter to pacify the teaparty.....If cain wins he picks the most popular white guy for contrast...

The main thing to keep in mind...is that Im most always fricken wrong

Click to expand...

Heres the link about Perrys fundraising...

Forget for a moment the poor debate performances and an embarrassing defeat in last month’s Florida straw poll. With his announced $17 million fundraising haul, Perry proved he’s still a force to be reckoned with.

Rick Perry fundraising haul signals long GOP slog - Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com

lpast said:

Heres the link about Perrys fundraising...

Forget for a moment the poor debate performances and an embarrassing defeat in last month’s Florida straw poll. With his announced $17 million fundraising haul, Perry proved he’s still a force to be reckoned with.

Rick Perry fundraising haul signals long GOP slog - Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com

Click to expand...

I believe a lot of his donations happened early to middle of the quarter. Their campaign was frantic at the end because everyone was dropping ship. If he doesn't pick it up this quarter then I predict his campaign will falter rapidly. Unlike Paul, his donations solely rely on big corps/special interests so it's a gamble if you don't come through.

Redress said:

With Palin and Christie both saying no to running, it looks like the republican field for 2012 is pretty much set. This brings to my mind a number of questions. What do you all think about these:

1) Romney is the frontrunner and has been all along except for a spike by Perry. Can he hold on to frontrunner status? Can he make conservatives excited enough to come out in force in Nov 2012?

2) Perry came in with huge numbers, and fell of fast. What can he do to recover and give himself a shot at the nomination?

3) Bachmann, is she a serious candidate? How does she overcome that she is part of a congress with a 10 % approval rate?

4) Cain is surging. What does he need to do to continue to surge? How can he combat the charge he has no government experience?

5) Is there anything Paul can do to appeal to mainstream voters?

6) Can any one else make an impact?

7) How do the candidates appeal to the Tea Party for the primaries, without being saddled with the Tea Party candidate tag which would hurt in the general?

8) Any front runners for VP?

Click to expand...

1. Conservatives will hold their nose and vote for Romney over Obama.
2. Perry has stumbled terribly, but I won't count him out yet. People have recovered from worse stumbles than he has made.
3. Bachmann is a serious candidate, but she tends to be too negative and not an uplifting voice.
4. Cain is surging and may fall back, but I hope not. A good executive knows to surround himself with bright and knowledgeable people. He can overcome his shortcomings by hiring the right people. He is uplifting and stands a chance to pull this out.
5. Paul will not appeal to conservatives. He continues to lean totally libertarian and that is not what the GOP base is.
6. Someone could still jump into the race and turn everything upside down.
7. I don't think the Tea Parties will hurt any GOP candidate in the general election.

On the Tea Party: The Tea Party polls 2 to 1 unfavorable to favorable, which is significantly worse than Obama and almost as bad as congress. Being a tea party candidate in the general will be a negative and I promise you Obama would go after that.

Edit: thank you for all the replies, keep them coming and add your own questions.

1. Perry or Romney, people will be voting against Obama and his policies as well as changing the legislature. GOP voters will be a determined bunch this election.
2. Not much, the liberal attack machine is out. They believe him to be a genuine threat and Romney to be a squish. Do the math.
3. She was. Past tense. Her congressional experience is not what is dragging her down.
4. Thats easy. Look at how badly the people with government experience have bungled things. That said, I see more offensive spin directed Cain's way soonish.
5. Someone said it above. Paul doesnt want to appeal to mainstream voters; he wants them to move towards him not the other way around.
6. VP picks? Someone is going to have to pull out all the stops in future debates or come up with a driving set of ideas to move forward. Some have, some havent; neither is gaining any big traction in polling as yet.
7. Trap question. Romney is winning and isnt much of a tea party candidate.
8. Rubio and Christie would be my top two thoughts. Ryan perhaps.

Redress said:

On the Tea Party: The Tea Party polls 2 to 1 unfavorable to favorable, which is significantly worse than Obama and almost as bad as congress. Being a tea party candidate in the general will be a negative and I promise you Obama would go after that.

Click to expand...

2 to 1? I don't know what poll you're going by, but the numbers vary depending on the poll. Most of them are in negative territory, but for the most part it's a much smaller difference. And anyway, most people don't care much either way; there has yet to be a poll showing the MAJORITY of Americans dislike the Tea Party. The same is not true with Obama.

Attacking the Tea Party didn't work in 2010, and it won't work in 2012.

Dav said:

2 to 1? I don't know what poll you're going by, but the numbers vary depending on the poll. Most of them are in negative territory, but for the most part it's a much smaller difference. And anyway, most people don't care much either way; there has yet to be a poll showing the MAJORITY of Americans dislike the Tea Party. The same is not true with Obama.

Attacking the Tea Party didn't work in 2010, and it won't work in 2012.

Click to expand...

It's not 2010 Dav. The tea party minions had not tried to default the country at that point.

Dav said:

Attacking the Tea Party didn't work in 2010, and it won't work in 2012.

Click to expand...

Didn't it? I have a feeling the GOP could have won Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware senate seats last year if not for the Tea Party candidates. Alaska was only saved because of Ms. Murkowski.

And in the House of the 129 seats with Tea Party members running they only won 42 of them. Attacking the Tea Party has been a very effective strategy for the Democrats so far. If not for that there would be more GOP seats in the House and a Republican Senate.

Redress said:

It's not 2010 Dav. The tea party minions had not tried to default the country at that point.

Click to expand...

The majority of the Tea Party caucus voted for the compromise bill in the end.

I'll grant that they're slightly less popular now than before, but I really don't think there's been that huge a shift. They were never extremely popular, but they were never extremely UNpopular either.

Anagram said:

Didn't it? I have a feeling the GOP could have won Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware senate seats last year if not for the Tea Party candidates.

Click to expand...

True. But they lost not because they were Tea Party candidates, but because they were awful candidates; the (effective) attacks on them had little to do with their Tea Party affiliation and more to do with their huge flaws.

And in the House of the 129 seats with Tea Party members running they only won 42 of them. Attacking the Tea Party has been a very effective strategy for the Democrats so far. If not for that there would be more GOP seats in the House and a Republican Senate.

Click to expand...

That's pretty much impossible to determine... although you're right that they sometimes put forward bad candidates, there's no way to say that in those other districts, a non-Tea Party Republican would have won. There was a 65-seat shift in the House, that's HUGE. And a 6-seat shift in the Senate is pretty big too, especially considering their numerical disadvantage (less Democrats were running than Republicans). I would not say that attacking the Tea Party has been a "very" effective strategy for Dems, or even an effective strategy at all. When Tea Party candidates lost, it wasn't because of the Tea Party, but because of the candidate (assuming another Republican would have won in their place).

1) I think Romney would have the best chance against Obama in a general election because he is the closest to Obama to being a moderate, but he still has a hurdle to cross to gain enough support from both the conservative base and his fellow Republicans who dislike him.

2) Perry could still recover his prominence if can keep his mouth closed most of the time since he is a better fit with the tea party infused conservative based ideology than is Romney.

3) Bachmann was never a serious candidate. I think they just let her run to make the other candidates appear less crazy by comparison.

4) I think Cain's present support will eventually swing to Perry.

5) Paul will never be a viable candidate for President.

6) I don't see anyone else doing better than the current top 3, Romney, Perry and Cain.

7) I think Perry could ride that fine line between tea party and establishment GOP better than any of the three. That's why I'm still thinking Perry has a chance to make a comeback on Romney.

8) As for a VP pick, I think Huntsman is a possibility to bring more appeal to moderates and independents in a general election. I can't think of any other reason that he is still around as a "serious" contender for the conservative candidate.

Dav said:

The majority of the Tea Party caucus voted for the compromise bill in the end.

I'll grant that they're slightly less popular now than before, but I really don't think there's been that huge a shift. They were never extremely popular, but they were never extremely UNpopular either.



True. But they lost not because they were Tea Party candidates, but because they were awful candidates; the (effective) attacks on them had little to do with their Tea Party affiliation and more to do with their huge flaws.



That's pretty much impossible to determine... although you're right that they sometimes put forward bad candidates, there's no way to say that in those other districts, a non-Tea Party Republican would have won. There was a 65-seat shift in the House, that's HUGE. And a 6-seat shift in the Senate is pretty big too, especially considering their numerical disadvantage (less Democrats were running than Republicans). I would not say that attacking the Tea Party has been a "very" effective strategy for Dems, or even an effective strategy at all. When Tea Party candidates lost, it wasn't because of the Tea Party, but because of the candidate (assuming another Republican would have won in their place).

Click to expand...

It is true. It is difficult to quantify exactly how much being a tea party candidate hurt last year. There are so many different factors that can go into an election. But I do believe that Tea Party carries a negative perception for a large segment of the country. The Democrats did a good job of branding it as some extreme far right section of the country and even if it didn't lose the GOP each of the seats, I don't think it helped more than hurt.

Redress said:

1) Romney is the frontrunner and has been all along except for a spike by Perry. Can he hold on to frontrunner status? Can he make conservatives excited enough to come out in force in Nov 2012?

Click to expand...

Romney will be McCain 2.0. As long as the other bunch are shooting themselves in the foot on a daily basis and he shuts up, then he should get the nomination. However winning is another matter, since he is mr. flipflopper extreme and has legal issues to contend with, if the Obama camp decides to use it. At least he can debate.

2) Perry came in with huge numbers, and fell of fast. What can he do to recover and give himself a shot at the nomination?

Click to expand...

Perry is done. I doubt he can recover from Niggerland or the other **** ups he has done. His a horrible debater and the GOP faithful have seen this the last few debates. They want to get rid of Obama and Obama will utterly destroy this guy in a debate. On top of that, then he has a lot of hidden (now coming out) skeletons in his closet that will kill his chances among independents. He is more and more looking like a poster boy for cronyism gone amok.

3) Bachmann, is she a serious candidate? How does she overcome that she is part of a congress with a 10 % approval rate?

Click to expand...

She was never a serious candidate. First off she is a woman.. conservatives tend to not vote for women if there is a credible male alternative. Secondly her own comments and actions over the last many years rule her out with independents and moderate GOPers.. she is a fruitcake and wealthfare queen.

4) Cain is surging. What does he need to do to continue to surge? How can he combat the charge he has no government experience?

Click to expand...

Cain's has two major problems. One he is black running in a white man's party. Dont underestimate this problem in especially certain states. If it is between a credible black man and white man, I would wager most would vote white in many states. Two he has come with some comments that put him in the nutter side of the political sphere, and while it might please the GOP faithful, he wont stand a chance with independents.

5) Is there anything Paul can do to appeal to mainstream voters?

Click to expand...

Paul is too old and some of his policy issues turn off the GOP faithful. He does not stand a chance. And the GOP dont want another presidential candidate who lives or dies based on who is VP and can succeed him if he dies..

6) Can any one else make an impact?

Click to expand...

Long time to go, so anything can happen. But as it stands now, it is Romney's to loose.

7) How do the candidates appeal to the Tea Party for the primaries, without being saddled with the Tea Party candidate tag which would hurt in the general?

Click to expand...

Yes that is a very good question. It is being caught between a rock and a hard place. On one side, the only way you can get ahead in the GOP field is to appeal to the crazies of the party, the Tea Party and the evangelical wackos.. but that in turn will turn off the independents in the real election. So only chance for the GOP candidate is hope the Dems dont bring it up..

8) Any front runners for VP?

Click to expand...

Too early imo... depends on who wins. But saying that, I suspect they will go with a Hispanic in an effort to lure Hispanic voters and attempt to prove they are not the party of the white man.. you know do another Michael Steele situation. It will ultimately fail because of the immigration issue, but hey that wont stop them from trying.

jasonxe said:

I believe a lot of his donations happened early to middle of the quarter. Their campaign was frantic at the end because everyone was dropping ship. If he doesn't pick it up this quarter then I predict his campaign will falter rapidly. Unlike Paul, his donations solely rely on big corps/special interests so it's a gamble if you don't come through.

Click to expand...

That makes sense jason...

Cain's has two major problems. One he is black running in a white man's party. Dont underestimate this problem in especially certain states. If it is between a credible black man and white man, I would wager most would vote white in many states. Two he has come with some comments that put him in the nutter side of the political sphere, and while it might please the GOP faithful, he wont stand a chance with independents.

I dont think the issue for cain is being black in a white mans party, he spouts all that the gop wants to hear...his problem would be with independents and blacks.
He would get zero of the black vote against obama.
What bothers me most about cain...is that all he talks about his business and applying his business practices to being President...Business and Govt are not even close and he shows just how much he doesnt know to me everytime he gives a speech...Business savvy doe not make a good President.
You cant apply anything he did at Godfathers Pizza to foriegn affairs...or the war on terror...or anything in the world...We are all focused on our economy right now and jobs...but any of us that diminishs Foriegn affairs and the importance of it for our prosperity and survival is foolish...cain gives me no confidence at all in his general ability to be president.

I was not going to do this, but then Pete happened...

PeteEU said:

Perry is done. I doubt he can recover from Niggerland or the other **** ups he has done. His a horrible debater and the GOP faithful have seen this the last few debates. They want to get rid of Obama and Obama will utterly destroy this guy in a debate. On top of that, then he has a lot of hidden (now coming out) skeletons in his closet that will kill his chances among independents. He is more and more looking like a poster boy for cronyism gone amok.

Click to expand...

Hardly any one cares about "Niggerland". I think most people understand it was a legacy name.

She was never a serious candidate. First off she is a woman.. conservatives tend to not vote for women if there is a credible male alternative. Secondly her own comments and actions over the last many years rule her out with independents and moderate GOPers.. she is a fruitcake and wealthfare queen.

Click to expand...

For god sakes Pete, her being a woman is not the problem she is going to have.

Cain's has two major problems. One he is black running in a white man's party. Dont underestimate this problem in especially certain states. If it is between a credible black man and white man, I would wager most would vote white in many states. Two he has come with some comments that put him in the nutter side of the political sphere, and while it might please the GOP faithful, he wont stand a chance with independents.

Click to expand...

Really Pete, you have no clue about the republican party. Most don't give a **** what race he is, only how conservative he is.

Yes that is a very good question. It is being caught between a rock and a hard place. On one side, the only way you can get ahead in the GOP field is to appeal to the crazies of the party, the Tea Party and the evangelical wackos.. but that in turn will turn off the independents in the real election. So only chance for the GOP candidate is hope the Dems dont bring it up..

Click to expand...

Some of us would like a grown up discussion without mindless name calling and stupidity.

Too early imo... depends on who wins. But saying that, I suspect they will go with a Hispanic in an effort to lure Hispanic voters and attempt to prove they are not the party of the white man.. you know do another Michael Steele situation. It will ultimately fail because of the immigration issue, but hey that wont stop them from trying.

Click to expand...

Why are you so fixated on race?

Rick Perry all the way. Regardless of all the nonsence, jibb-jabb, ignorant false crap about his life. He is the next President.
The Liberals would make-up fantasy crap on their own mothers if needed..Call it desperate measures.

Dav said:

There's still a remote chance that someone else jumps in - Rudy Giuliani, for example, was said to be interested in running and has yet to announce that he won't. I kinda hope he does, he's at least better than the others running right now. But if not...

1. If the current field is set, I'd give Romney better than even odds of being the nominee. As long as he remains gaffe-free he could probably beat Obama, but he'd have to keep constantly reminding conservatives that if they don't get out and vote for him, Obamacare will go into effect without repeal.

2. Perry's finished. He has all the inauthenticity of Romney without the brains.

3. The fact that Bachmann was ever leading in any poll only shows how desperate the Republican Party has been. She's through too.

4. I have no idea what's going to happen with Cain. Someone like him getting nominated is pretty much unprecedented, as far as I'm aware. In the end, it'll all boil down to "is he better than Mitt Romney?" I'm not sure of the answer myself, and even less sure of how the party will answer. Right now though, I feel like he's probably just one more in a long line of Flavors of the Week.

5. I don't think Paul really wants to appeal to mainstream voters. He's mostly running to get out his message; he's smart enough to know he has no chance of winning.

That's all I feel like answering for the moment.

Click to expand...

I recall the same thing being said about a candidate named Obama around 2007.

1) Romney is the frontrunner and has been all along except for a spike by Perry. Can he hold on to frontrunner status? Can he make conservatives excited enough to come out in force in Nov 2012?

2) Perry came in with huge numbers, and fell of fast. What can he do to recover and give himself a shot at the nomination?

3) Bachmann, is she a serious candidate? How does she overcome that she is part of a congress with a 10 % approval rate?

4) Cain is surging. What does he need to do to continue to surge? How can he combat the charge he has no government experience?

5) Is there anything Paul can do to appeal to mainstream voters?

6) Can any one else make an impact?

7) How do the candidates appeal to the Tea Party for the primaries, without being saddled with the Tea Party candidate tag which would hurt in the general?

8) Any front runners for VP?

Click to expand...

1) The chance to eliminate Obama will get conservatives out, even if a ketchup packet wins the GOP nomination.

2) Become more moderate. Having said that, any conservative from Texas is never truly "out" until they're officially out.

3) She was never a serious candidate. She was a magic trick in a volatile time.

4) We have a sitting president that proves being black with no government experience is not a detrimental combination.

5) Smile more. Throw out some opening pitches in the baseball playoffs. Just come off as more "everyman" and not a miserable old coot.

6) Giuliani is possible.

7) Take on Ron Paul as veep, for whoever gets the nod.

8) See #7.