Highlighting the sobering reality that there are no guaranteed superior returns in investing, Forbes
reported today:
A two-day rally aside, the beating that financial stocks have taken lately have knocked out some top money managers and their brand-name mutual funds.
No champ has endured more pain than Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX). Until 2006, Miller held the distinction of beating the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive calendar years, but lately the fund has struggled. Last year, LMVT fell nearly 7%, while the S&P finished up more than 5%. Even after losing 20% in the first quarter, Miller wrote to shareholders that he thought the worst was over.
If only that were true: as of Wednesday's close, Miller's fund is down 41% year-over-year, according to Morningstar. The S&P 500 is down 18% over the same period.
Of course, if one wants to take a more esoteric approach, one can try one's luck with the "Michelle Girard fashion rule."
When the RBS Greenwich Capital senior economist wears yellow, gloom is cast aside and cheer is in the air. When she wears blue, blue skies herald favorable trading weather with higher prices. When she wears red, watch out for falling stocks. Pink? Red is a primary color, so a down day is in store. Purple? Usually not a good day, but a positive suprise is occasionally possible--red plays a dominant role, while blue is a recessive primary color. Multiple colors? Chaos drags down prices.
* * Timing matters. If she appears on TV before the start of trading, the rule applies to that day's trading. If she appears on TV after trading has begun or concluded, the rule applies for the following day.