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Originally Posted by rathi  Your information is better than mine on this, so I will take your word for it. Although it does beg the question, how long would such a conflict last? The last time Iran went to war, they showed rather low military capability and determination, but that was 20 years ago. |
Iran cannot attack by land. Iran cannot attack by sea. Iran cannot attack with fighter aircraft. That leaves two remaining Iranian attack venues... Shahab-3a missiles and/or attacks by proxy forces (Hizb'Allah/Hamas).
The flight/targeting ability of the Shahab is questionable. According to accounts, one of the Iranian missiles in the latest test in which nine mixed missiles were launched misfired. The Shahab 3a can accomodate either a conventional (HE) warhead or a C/B warhead. An HE can certainly cause damage, but unless the supply is unlimited the damage is sustainable. I highly doubt that Iran would opt for a C/B warhead because that would open up the Pandora's Box of WMD in which Israel has an overwhelming edge.
War by proxy? Very possible but suicidal. I can't imagine that Lebanon wishes to reprise the last angry visit by the IAF. Hamas and Gaza simply cannot long sustain concentrated air/armored incursions.
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Originally Posted by rathi UAVS can fly at 300 mph max and carry no air-to-air weapons. WW2 fighters have the capability to shoot down aircraft with that performance The only advantage UAVs have is their small size that makes them hard to detect. Iran's airforce is not something to be proud of, but they are more than capable of shooting down defenseless craft moving at 1/6 their speed. |
UAVs are not designed to engage in dogfights. However, their dynamics enable both extremely low and high altitude flight. They can operate well under the ground radar ceiling. This low altitude flight ability makes targeting one from a higher altidude (fighter jet) somewhat problematic. Think about it. Another edge is the speed varience. Have you ever tried to track/target a low altidude, slow moving, and dinking UAV in a fighter jet whizzing along at Mach+ speed? Not easy at all. In addition, UAVs have a very small heat (IR) signature.
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Originally Posted by rathi None of those countries were flying combat air patrols in response to an airstrike on their country either. Iran would obviously respond to an attack by patrolling aircraft around nuclear sites to protect them. Furthermore, the UAVs may have been detected, but Israels neighbors didn't shoot them down to avoid conflict. The UAVs worked fine in Lebanon because Lebanon has no airforce to speak of. They literally have no fixed wing combat aircraft. Iran has more than 100 active jet fighters. They wouldn't be a match for IAF aircraft, but UAVs wouldn't be a problem. |
Israel may first elect to “shape the battlefield”. In this scenario, all known Iranian air bases and missile sites would be targeted in an initial wave of Jericho and Tomahawk strikes. Israel as had an orbital surveillance satellite (SURVSAT) scanning Iran for quite some time now. Thus, Iran is already virtually gridded via GPS using the military Keypad method.