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Iran is already running numerous centrifuge-cascades. This process will yield weapons-grade fissile material. Since Iran already has the delivery system (Shahab 3b), the sole remaining technical hurdle would be fashioning the warhead. It has been reported that either NK or the Khan network previously supplied Iran with warhead blueprints. Left unchecked then, Iran will probably have a deliverable medium range nuclear weapon within two years.
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If that is Iran's time table for the weapons, it would be safe to say that waiting for American withdrawal is unlikely. However, Israel still can try to get U.S. support under Bush and try again with the new president.
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If one is planning a high-risk adventure, monetary cost is nominally not an obstacle nor deterrant. Either one utilizes the necessary resources to succeed fully, or one should settle for diplomacy.
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Assuming aircraft are used. Jericho-IV and Tomahawk cruise-missile strikes could do enough damage to disrupt proliferation operations for a significant period.
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I agree that Israel will not hesitate to spend what it takes to insure the removal of the Iranian nuclear program. I also agree that it is quite possible to destroy Iranian facilities with current missile stocks. However, Iran may retaliate with its own Shahab missiles, sparking a more long term conflict. Israel would certainly attempt to prevent the missile attacks, requiring significantly more missiles to disrupt Iranian industry and launch sites. Israel could probably make sacrifices to obtain the money for such weapons, but the time needed to manufacture wouldn't change. Israel could take heavy losses before it could obtain enough weapons to neutralize Iranian ability to perform missile attacks.
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I have no idea how you come to the conclusion that UAVs are “sitting ducks”. My IAF MOS is CAS/FAC/UAV-WO. In other words, I can work both ends (field/control) of UAV operations. Although it's possible, UAVs are extremely difficult to locate, track, and terminate. As far as I am aware, the IAF is the only entity to have destroyed an enemy UAV in-flight (Lebanon).
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I know that an Predator was destroyed by an Iraqi Mig-25 and that one or more Hermes operated by Georgia were shot by Russia. A UAV has no defenses , so if spotted it is dead. I'm not sure if Iranian air defenses could spot a UAV, but its combat air patrols certainly would probably be able to find and eliminate them. I don't think anyone has operated UAVs in quantity in a hostile airspace facing decent opposition before, so I can't really stand on precedent.
Overall, I think Israel is going to make sure it can minimize damage from a possible Iranian counteract before taking any military action. They might end up making a deal to get a closer airbase or just stocknpile enough missiles to handle a longer conflict.