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Originally Posted by rathi  Doesn't that depend on what the time frame is for the strike? Iran is unlikely to develop nuclear technology for years, and Obama could completely pull out of Iraq by the beginning of 2010. That might be more time than military wants to wait, but it would solve a major hurdle without cost. |
Iran is already running numerous centrifuge-cascades. This process will yield weapons-grade fissile material. Since Iran already has the delivery system (Shahab 3b), the sole remaining technical hurdle would be fashioning the warhead. It has been reported that either NK or the Khan network previously supplied Iran with warhead blueprints. Left unchecked then, Iran will probably have a deliverable medium range nuclear weapon within two years.
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Originally Posted by rathi I agree that Iran is within missile range for a number of Israeli weapons. However, such missiles are expensive and not in terribly large supply. If Iran escalates conflict after a strike, Israel would not have as much of an advantage in a longer conflict. |
If one is planning a high-risk adventure, monetary cost is nominally not an obstacle nor deterrant. Either one utilizes the necessary resources to succeed fully, or one should settle for diplomacy.
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Originally Posted by rathi I don't think Iran is within range on current Israeli aircraft, if flight over Iraq is prohibited. Its 600 miles to the border, and many parts of Iran are over 1500 miles miles away. Thats beyond the combat range of any Israeli aircraft, even with fuel tanks and reduced payload. Aerial refueling would increase range, but the tanker could be easily shot down by the flyover countries. Even then, aircraft might still need a 1800 mile combat range to hit their targets. |
Assuming aircraft are used. Jericho-IV and Tomahawk cruise-missile strikes could do enough damage to disrupt proliferation operations for a significant period.
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Originally Posted by rathi UAVs would not be an optimal choice. I'm not sure if they have they have the range, but they would have limited payload and be sitting ducks for the Iranian forces. |
UAVs would not be an optimal strike choice. However, they would be invaluable for painting targets and doing real-time BDA.
I have no idea how you come to the conclusion that UAVs are “sitting ducks”. My IAF MOS is CAS/FAC/UAV-WO. In other words, I can work both ends (field/control) of UAV operations. Although it's possible, UAVs are extremely difficult to locate, track, and terminate. As far as I am aware, the IAF is the only entity to have destroyed an enemy UAV in-flight (Lebanon).