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They're called ballistic missiles for a reason - they follow a ballistic path.
And their path, determined at the time of booter burn-out, is then easily calculated.
Thus, your 'dont know the path ahead of time' argument is meaningless.
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Thats simply not true. The Patriots missiles failed in Iraq because of the Scuds unpredicted final stage movement. I am not sure if they have update their techniques or not, but a live test is needed to prove their capabilities. If it was as easy as you claim, they would have no problems with the test.
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Tell me:
Does the testing show that the concept - hitting incoling targets with kenetic-kill interceptors - is proven?
Be honest, now...
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Yes. However, there is a large difference between successful
concept and field-usable.
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Simulated battlefield? Sure it has. Each of the tests simulate the battlefield, even if only part of it.
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You need to simulate every single part of the battlefield simultaneously if you want to gauge real life use.
Try analogy. My point is that if you control the environment (knowing when and where bullets will be) you can do things otherwise impossible (like dodging bullets) in real life (where you get shot). The missile testing controls the environment and thus can deliver performance that doesn't reflect real world use.
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That conditions now mean nothing regarding conditions 30 years from now.
There's no way at all you can argue that we won't face a threat in the relatively near future that will necessitate a NMD.
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Lets first specify the current system being deployed in Poland, not NMD in general. The current NMD has no proven ability to hit anything, so it would have no benefit if ABM systems were needed. Furthermore, as you pointed out, the future can bring unexpected enemies. Maybe Poland is our enemy in 30 years and we handed them tools to use against us. We can't predict what will happen, so we have no idea if the system will be good or bad in the future.
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We're not trying to "calm them' - we're offering to blow the guy with the gun to make him go away.
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No, I am offering that we don't pull out toy weapons and spook him. Sure that airsoft gun can't hurt him, but it still is going to make him nervous.
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The NMD has no effect on Russian detrrent. All of our actions should be considered under that fact.
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Is their a reason why you think that actual truth means anything in politics? Look at the world around us. How many times has fear won out over logic in these times?