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I don't see the US minimizing its air power in Iraq or the Persian Gulf anytime soon. I personally think the Israeli government believes that Barack Obama will be the next US president. In this regard, the prevailing pov is that an Obama administration would be less inclined to offer Israel any preemptive support. Under this political landscape, banking on US regime change would seem counter-productive and perhaps prohibitive.
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Doesn't that depend on what the time frame is for the strike? Iran is unlikely to develop nuclear technology for years, and Obama could completely pull out of Iraq by the beginning of 2010. That might be more time than military wants to wait, but it would solve a major hurdle without cost.
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Israeli submarines are already cruise-missile capable. The IAF has demonstrated the flying range to strike Iran and return home. Iran is well within range of Israel based Jericho missiles. In addition, Israel has a UAV fleet with the range and capability to strike Iran and return to IAF air-bases.
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I agree that Iran is within missile range for a number of Israeli weapons. However, such missiles are expensive and not in terribly large supply. If Iran escalates conflict after a strike, Israel would not have as much of an advantage in a longer conflict.
I don't think Iran is within range on current Israeli aircraft, if flight over Iraq is prohibited. Its 600 miles to the border, and many parts of Iran are over 1500 miles miles away. Thats beyond the combat range of any Israeli aircraft, even with fuel tanks and reduced payload. Aerial refueling would increase range, but the tanker could be easily shot down by the flyover countries. Even then, aircraft might still need a 1800 mile combat range to hit their targets.
UAVs would not be an optimal choice. I'm not sure if they have they have the range, but they would have limited payload and be sitting ducks for the Iranian forces.