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Originally Posted by Slainte  From what I've heard in the media over the past few years plenty of top people within the Bush admin and the Pentagon are themselves sceptical about the ability of the US to land a proper "knock out" blow to the Iranian nuclear project from the air. When you consider just how much larger and more advanced the US airforce is when compared to the IAF particularly in regards to the huge strategic bombers the US would undoubtedly use in such a mission, I start to think if the US isn't very confident of its ability how can the Israelis be? |
With a huge weapons inventory and aircraft carriers, any US preemptive strike on Iran would be both wide and sustained. The US would have sufficient time to analyze BDA and strike targets two or even three times if necessary. An IAF operation would be quite different. In and out as quickly as possible and with all munitions expended (Winchester).
Beyond that, you are not thinking in the loop. You are analyzing this from an exterior and removed position. The powers that be are very aware that nothing in this is guaranteed. But even a partial success would be considered better than playing ostrich.
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Originally Posted by Slainte The absolute worse thing that could happen from an Israeli persepctive is a botched raid that kills hundreds, maybe thouands of Iranian civillians but fails to damage the key parts of the Iranian nuclear installations buried deep underground. |
Ordinary Iranian “civilians” are forbidden access to the state reservations that host critical nuclear facilities. Everyone within has been vetted by the state and the military.
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Originally Posted by Slainte Then you'd have all the short term chaos an unprovoked attack would generate, plus a much increased chance of Iran becoming extremely aggressive once it completes it's nuclear project and the playing field gets leveled. For an Israeli strike to be considered a "success" it would have to set the Iranian project back at least 10 years, now I don't know the in's and outs of the entire project but I'm not sure an attack on just a few of the facilities would do that, might put them back 1, 2 maybe 3 years, but not long enough to seriously alter the changing balance of power in the Middle East. |
Israel would consider a 3 year setback as a success.
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Originally Posted by Slainte FWIW, I don't think there will be any such attack, this stuff is mainly for domestic Israeli consumption. Iran is more concerned about being isolated economically and diplomatically by the US and her allies and battling for influence in Iraq, I don't think they treat these Israeli threats very seriously at all. |
Perhaps you are right. Perhaps
it is all theater. But then again, perhaps Iraq and Syria also thought likewise.
Anyway, this is more of a nuts and bolts type of thread rather than a political dissection or a morality play. As recently as a few months ago, I didn't believe that the IAF could orchestrate and complete such an attack. As I delve ever deeper into it though, I am reluctantly beginning to change my viewpoint.