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Kandahar · 06-13-08, 03:59 AM

For an even more simplistic analysis, we don't even need to look at economic growth and the number of terms. Presidential approval rating alone has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 presidential elections since 1948. The sole exception was 1960...and even there, Nixon only lost to Kennedy by -0.2% of the popular vote.

This is also an ominous sign for the Republicans. Bush's RCP approval rating stands at 29%. No incumbent president in the history of opinion polling has had such a low approval rating during an election year...but two have come close. In 1952, Truman's approval rating stood at 32%. His party lost the presidential election by -10.9%. In 1980, Carter's approval rating stood at 34%. His party lost the presidential election by -9.7%.

06-13-08, 03:59 AM	#2 (permalink)
Kandahar Enemy Combatant Join Date: Jul 2005 Last Online: Today 05:07 PM Location: Dayton, OH Posts: 11,270 Thanks: 789 Thanked 2,166 Times in 1,297 Posts Lean: Liberal Gender: Current Mood:	Re: Historical data indicates Obama will win For an even more simplistic analysis, we don't even need to look at economic growth and the number of terms. Presidential approval rating alone has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 presidential elections since 1948. The sole exception was 1960...and even there, Nixon only lost to Kennedy by -0.2% of the popular vote. This is also an ominous sign for the Republicans. Bush's RCP approval rating stands at 29%. No incumbent president in the history of opinion polling has had such a low approval rating during an election year...but two have come close. In 1952, Truman's approval rating stood at 32%. His party lost the presidential election by -10.9%. In 1980, Carter's approval rating stood at 34%. His party lost the presidential election by -9.7%. __________________ In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move. -Douglas Adams Last edited by Kandahar : 06-13-08 at 04:02 AM.