Originally Posted by galenrox

This is just a starting point for these discussions, as most of us I'm sure have heard there's an impending slaughter of the Republicans coming in the congressional elections this year, so I figured we'd do well to discuss the specifics.

Alright, so first there's Trent Lott's old seat in Mississippi, which is going to be decided by a special election to decide who can finish up his term. Mississippi is a deep red state, and Lott won his last election there 64-35. This time around we have the guy who's been in Lott's seat until the special election, former congressman Roger Wicker, running against Democrat former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. There have been two polls in the last month, the earlier had Musgrove up 48-40. One came out on the 27th where that lead narrowed to 47-46, but still, it's Mississippi.

Then we have the current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's seat in Kentucky. He's running against businessman Bruce Lunsford. McConnell won his last reelection bid by a 65-35 margin. There have been two polls in the last month, the earlier having McConnell leading 48-36, but then the more recent poll on May 22nd had Lunsford leading 49-44. Interesting fact though, 57% of registered voters in Kentucky are registered as Democrats.

In Minnesota incumbent Norm Coleman is being challenged by professional douche-bag Al Franken. There hasn't been a huge shift here, it's always close. In 2002 Coleman won reelection by a 3 point margin. They've also had 2 polls in the last month, the earlier had Coleman up by 7, and the more recent had him up by 2.

In North Carolina Elizabeth Dole is facing a real challenge in Kay Hagan. Although not typically as competitive as Minnesota, it's usually been pretty close here, with Elizabeth winning by 9 points in 2002 and Jesse Helms winning by 7 points in 1996. There have been 4 polls in the last month, and the average is Dole is ahead by 3-4.

In New Hampshire Republican John Sununu doesn't look like he's got much of a shot at keeping his seat, trailing Democrat Jeane Shaheen in every poll, averaging out to being down by 9.6.

In New Mexico there's an open seat once held by (I assume) Republican Sen. Domenici. All three of their congressmen are running, two Republicans challenging each other in the primary for the right to run against Rep Tom Udall. In the most recent poll Udall lead one by 16 and the other by 21.

In Maine Republican Sue Collins in defending her seat against Democrat Tom Allen. It's probably going to be close, but it appears Collins is doing well, she's led by double digits in every poll thusfar.

In Alaska Republican Ted "The Internet is Like a Set of Tubes" Stevens is trying to defend his seat against former mayor of Anchorage Democrat Mark Begich. 2 polls in the last month, Begich by 5, and Begich by 2. Alaska is the only state that has only ever gone with one party in Presidential elections, it has always gone Republican.

In Virginia it's not particularly close in the race for retiring Republican great John Warner's seat. Former Governor (and was once considered an early favorite for the Democratic Presidential nomination) Mark Warner has been quite thoroughly caning former Republican governor and former RNC chair Jim Gilmore. The closest Gilmore has gotten is one poll in January had him down by 15, the most recent has him down by 18, but it's gotten as high as a 30 point lead last October.

In Oregon Republican Gordon Smith is trying to defend his seat from Democrat Jeff Merkley. It's gotten pretty tight as of late, with the most recent poll having Smith's lead cut down to 3, despite earlier polls with his lead in the double digits (like previous margins of victory for him).

In Texas John Cornyn is facing tough competition from Democrat Rick Noriega. there have been two polls so far, and both had Cornyn up by 4.

In Colorado there's kind of a race going for Wayne Allard's old seat. Democrat Mark Udall (and yes, there will likely be two freshman democrat senators this year named Udall) has been pretty consistently leading his opponent Republican Bob Schaffer, the only poll in the last month having Udall up by 6.



And then in the only race where there's any discussion of a Republican pickup, in Louisiana Democrat incumbent Mary Landrieu is leading Republican challenger John Kennedy 47-44 in the only poll in the last month.



Anywho, it's pretty much a given that the Dems will pick up in Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. I think they'll also pick up in Mississippi, Colorado, Alaska, and Kentucky. I have no idea about Oregon, I could really see that going either way. I think Elizabeth Dole, Norm Coleman, John Cornyn, and Sue Collins should be able to keep their seats (although it's hard to say if Dole can survive the black turnout that will come with Obama being the nominee), and I don't know about Louisiana.

So as I see it the Dem pickups will be between 6 (if they pick up Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Mississippi, Colorado, Alaska, and Kentucky and lose Louisiana) and and 9 (if they keep Lousiana and pick up Oregon and North Carolina). Hopefully it will be less than 9, but we shall see.