As an interesting exercise to see how President Carter's rosy description of the outcome of his meeting with senior Hamas officials played to a wider audience, I took a look at the online prediction market as no opinion polls had been published on the matter.

Just as many here correctly noted that Hamas' rejection of Israel remained fundamentally unchanged despite President Carter's assessment, the online prediction market never brought its expected odds of Hamas' recognizing Israel on or before September 30, 2008 to 5%. Currently, the expected odds of such a development are 2.8%.