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Old 11-21-07, 09:06 AM   #5 (permalink)
donsutherland1
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Thread Starter Re: Iran To Stop Selling Oil for Dollars

I strongly agree with your pointing out the volume of those markets, Oldreliable67.

That difference between the crude oil and foreign exchange markets is, in part, almost certainly the reason why Mr. Ahmadinejad and Mr. Chavez tried to talk down the dollar and encourage OPEC to make a broad-based shift to delink crude oil and the dollar. They were playing to market psychology. Iran's move to stop selling oil for dollars is merely cosmetic in the larger scheme of things. It has some symbolic value, but little more.

More worrisome are the fundamentals responsible for the weakening dollar and the markets' expectations for additional imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In my opinion, the decision reached at the December Federal Reserve meeting will be important. If the Fed cuts rates again, the dollar will almost certainly drop below $1.50 per Euro. If the Fed holds the line (as I hope it will), the dollar might experience a short-term rally. Ultimately, U.S. trade and fiscal imbalances will need to correct if the dollar is to experience a more sustainable recovery in its foreign exchange value.
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